Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.
By 2028, anti-amyloid antibodies will have a net positive impact on real-world CDR-SB trajectories, but uptake will remain <25% of eligible early AD patients due to ARIA monitoring burden.
Your probability this resolves TRUE
0% (impossible)
50%
100% (certain)
Proper-scoring-rule preview
Your position is kept on this device until you sign in.
Evidence stream
2 events · 1 snapshot
posterior drift
71% → 71% (0pp · 1 point)
Registry data
Apr 18, 2026
Peer-reviewed paper
Apr 18, 2026
Expert reactions · 0
Sign in to post a take, cite a related claim, or flag a methodological concern.
No reactions yet. Be the first expert to post a take, cite a related claim, or flag a methodological concern.
Source publication
Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease
Christopher H. van Dyck et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2023
· openalex W4310461604
Semantically related
Nearest claims in the expert-corpus vector space. Ordered by cosine distance — lower is closer.
0.1462
By 2028, aducanumab will have been withdrawn or deprioritized in favor of later anti-amyloid agents with cleaner efficacy signals.
0.1878
Recent follow-up analyses of EMERGE (aducanumab) are confirming the original effect size in real-world data.
0.1920
The CLARITY-AD (lecanemab) trial's stated primary conclusion — Lecanemab slows cognitive decline in early Alzheimer disease with amyloid confirmation, with a non-trivial ARIA safety signal. — replicates in independent cohorts.
0.1953
The EMERGE (aducanumab) trial's stated primary conclusion — Aducanumab’s pivotal phase 3 showed mixed evidence for cognitive slowing in early Alzheimer disease. — replicates in independent cohorts.
0.2097
Recent follow-up analyses of CLARITY-AD (lecanemab) are confirming the original effect size in real-world data.
0.2474
By 2028, antibody-drug conjugates (T-DXd class) will have largely displaced T-DM1 as second-line HER2+ metastatic therapy.