Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.
Pembrolizumab's PFS and OS benefit over ipilimumab in advanced melanoma will be maintained at longer follow-up beyond the median 7.9-month observation period reported in this trial.
TL;DR · AI-generated
The anti-PD-1 antibody pembrolizumab prolonged progression-free survival and overall survival and had less high-grade toxicity than did ipilimumab in patients with advanced melanoma.
Author-implied confidence
82%
Current probability
Status
DRAFT
Your probability this resolves TRUE
0% (impossible)
50%
100% (certain)
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Evidence stream
1 event · 1 snapshot
posterior drift
92% → 92% (0pp · 1 point)
Peer-reviewed paper
Apr 18, 2026
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Source publication
Pembrolizumab versus Ipilimumab in Advanced Melanoma.
· openalex W2152897456 · s2 0dac3ea8
Semantically related
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Pembrolizumab (10 mg/kg every 2 weeks) improves 12-month overall survival to 74.1% versus 58.2% for ipilimumab (HR 0.63, P=0.0005) in patients with advanced melanoma.
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Pembrolizumab (10 mg/kg every 2 weeks) improves 6-month progression-free survival to 47.3% versus 26.5% for ipilimumab (HR 0.58, P<0.001) in patients with advanced melanoma.
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Pembrolizumab achieves an objective response rate of approximately 33% in advanced melanoma, compared with 11.9% for ipilimumab (P<0.001).
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The CheckMate-067 trial's stated primary conclusion — Nivolumab + ipilimumab combination yields superior long-term survival in advanced melanoma vs. either monotherapy. — replicates in independent cohorts.
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In previously untreated metastatic melanoma patients with PD-L1-positive tumors, nivolumab monotherapy achieves equivalent median progression-free survival (14.0 months) to nivolumab plus ipilimumab combination therapy.
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In previously untreated patients with unresectable stage III/IV melanoma, nivolumab plus ipilimumab achieves a median progression-free survival of 11.5 months versus 2.9 months with ipilimumab alone (HR 0.42, P<0.001).