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Noeme · up2mmj1q

Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.

Eliminating CT scans from routine surveillance programs for favorable-histology Wilms tumor is unlikely to compromise patient survival while substantially reducing radiation exposure and healthcare costs.

TL;DR · AI-generated

tldr@v2.0.0
semanticscholar.org

In patients with favorable-histology WT, elimination of CT scans from surveillance programs is unlikely to compromise survival but would result in substantial reduction in radiation exposure and health care costs.

Author-implied confidence

68%

Current probability

84%

Status

DRAFT

Your probability this resolves TRUE

Consensus 84%

0% (impossible)

50%

100% (certain)

25
50
75

Proper-scoring-rule preview

If TRUE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · +8 rep
If FALSE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · -1 rep
Kelly 25.0% ≈ 250 rep
vs. consensus: 0.45 bits

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Evidence stream

1 event · 1 snapshot

posterior drift

84% → 84% (0pp · 1 point)

posterior drift: 84% → 84%
supports

Peer-reviewed paper

PMID 30335557

Apr 18, 2026

+16pp

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Source publication

Impact of Surveillance Imaging Modality on Survival After Recurrence in Patients With Favorable-Histology Wilms Tumor: A Report From the Children's Oncology Group.

54 citations · S2 33
FWCI 1.6 · Field-average
OA · bronze
12 authors · 83% ORCID

· openalex W2896066577 · s2 2eb63559