All noemes
Trial · NCT01958021

Noeme · xd86xmub

Future
oncology

Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.

By 2028, CDK4/6 inhibitors will remain standard first-line for HR+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer; resistance-overcoming agents (e.g., AKT/PI3K) will be layered on top.

TL;DR · AI-generated

tldr@v2.0.0
semanticscholar.org

Among patients receiving initial systemic treatment for HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer, the duration of progression-free survival was significantly longer among those receiving ribociclib plus letrozole than among those received placebo plus let rozole, with a higher rate of myelosuppression in the ribocIClib group.

Your probability this resolves TRUE

Consensus 71%

0% (impossible)

50%

100% (certain)

25
50
75

Proper-scoring-rule preview

If TRUE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · +8 rep
If FALSE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · -1 rep
Kelly 25.0% ≈ 250 rep
vs. consensus: 0.15 bits

Your position is kept on this device until you sign in.

Evidence stream

2 events · 1 snapshot

posterior drift

71% → 71% (0pp · 1 point)

posterior drift: 71% → 71%
neutral

Registry data

NCT01958021

Apr 18, 2026

supports

Peer-reviewed paper

+21pp

Expert reactions · 0

Sign in to post a take, cite a related claim, or flag a methodological concern.

No reactions yet. Be the first expert to post a take, cite a related claim, or flag a methodological concern.

Source publication

Ribociclib as First-Line Therapy for HR-Positive, Advanced Breast Cancer

Gabriel N. Hortobagyi et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2016

2.0k citations · S2 1.6k
79 influential
FWCI 153.5 · Landmark
OA · bronze
37 authors · 70% ORCID

· openalex W2528767298 · s2 6bffab4c