All noemes

Noeme · 5hhw6sf1

Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.

The cardiovascular benefit of evolocumab will be shown to persist or increase with longer follow-up beyond the 2.2-year median observed in the FOURIER trial.

TL;DR · AI-generated

tldr@v2.0.0
semanticscholar.org

In this trial, inhibition of PCSK9 with evolocumab on a background of statin therapy lowered LDL cholesterol levels to a median of 30 mg per deciliter (0.78 mmol per liter) and reduced the risk of cardiovascular events.

Author-implied confidence

62%

Current probability

80%

Status

DRAFT

Your probability this resolves TRUE

Consensus 80%

0% (impossible)

50%

100% (certain)

25
50
75

Proper-scoring-rule preview

If TRUE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · +8 rep
If FALSE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · -1 rep
Kelly 25.0% ≈ 250 rep
vs. consensus: 0.33 bits

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Evidence stream

1 event · 1 snapshot

posterior drift

80% → 80% (0pp · 1 point)

posterior drift: 80% → 80%
supports

Peer-reviewed paper

PMID 28304224

Apr 18, 2026

+18pp

Expert reactions · 0

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Source publication

Evolocumab and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease.

5.8k citations · S2 4.8k
286 influential
FWCI 600.5 · Landmark
OA · bronze
12 authors · 75% ORCID

· openalex W2596179513 · s2 993698dd