All noemes
Trial · NCT03036124

Noeme · 4fdsw5mb

Forecast horizon — calibration-scored at resolution.

By 2028, quadruple therapy (ACEi/ARNI + BB + MRA + SGLT2i) will be the default HFrEF regimen in US registries.

Your probability this resolves TRUE

Consensus 71%

0% (impossible)

50%

100% (certain)

25
50
75

Proper-scoring-rule preview

If TRUE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · +8 rep
If FALSE: Brier 0.250 · log 0.69 · -1 rep
Kelly 25.0% ≈ 250 rep
vs. consensus: 0.15 bits

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Evidence stream

2 events · 1 snapshot

posterior drift

71% → 71% (0pp · 1 point)

posterior drift: 71% → 71%
neutral

Registry data

NCT03036124

Apr 18, 2026

supports

Peer-reviewed paper

+21pp

Expert reactions · 0

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Source publication

Dapagliflozin in Patients with Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction

John J.V. McMurray et al. · New England Journal of Medicine · 2019

6.7k citations
FWCI 529.0 · Landmark
OA · bronze
38 authors · 87% ORCID

· openalex W2974260792